I develop applications for the collection and automation of regression-based analysis for sports. I am mainly working with MLB statistics, but I will also dabble in College Football and NFL.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
MLB 9/13/2012
Yankees ML -145, 1.45 units to win 1.00 Rangers ML -225, 2.25 units to win 1.00
I started building the program during the first half of this season. I'd say I have atleast 50 hours of programming time into it. The program was finished and begin mining data on 6/28. At that point it was close to the all star game, so I decided to start making plays with the beginning of the second half, 7/13. There isn't much historical data, so I can't backtest for previous seasons. However, if the set of filters are not working, the program adapts to whatever is currently relevant.
so what you have on wagerminds is what you actually played so far with the program? netting about 60% of MLB ML plays. by the way I don't know if you actually bet this way but I noticed you write on here to bet the win amount instead of risk amount. It would be in the best interest in betting MLB to always bet the same amount per game since we're dealing with ML. I think this formula works very well in ML plays, but i'd think twice about using it for any spread or in other sports.
Just to follow up, I do personally play the games different from how I play them on Wager Minds. On wager minds, you can only Risk units, and they can only have sizes of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 units. There isn't a whole lot of flexibility there. But yes, all of the MLB on my wagerminds were plays put out by the program.
I am interested in your model for MLB. did you recently start this? or have you been testing it for years. what is the success rate?
ReplyDeleteI started building the program during the first half of this season. I'd say I have atleast 50 hours of programming time into it. The program was finished and begin mining data on 6/28. At that point it was close to the all star game, so I decided to start making plays with the beginning of the second half, 7/13. There isn't much historical data, so I can't backtest for previous seasons. However, if the set of filters are not working, the program adapts to whatever is currently relevant.
ReplyDeleteyeah props to you.
ReplyDeleteso what you have on wagerminds is what you actually played so far with the program? netting about 60% of MLB ML plays. by the way I don't know if you actually bet this way but I noticed you write on here to bet the win amount instead of risk amount. It would be in the best interest in betting MLB to always bet the same amount per game since we're dealing with ML. I think this formula works very well in ML plays, but i'd think twice about using it for any spread or in other sports.
nvm just read ur blog on juice
ReplyDeleteJust to follow up, I do personally play the games different from how I play them on Wager Minds. On wager minds, you can only Risk units, and they can only have sizes of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 units. There isn't a whole lot of flexibility there. But yes, all of the MLB on my wagerminds were plays put out by the program.
ReplyDelete